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Thursday, 16 December 2010 11:34

Intel netbook plans shattered by tablets

Written by Fuad Abazovic
atomn_logo

Hoped for 226M netbooks in 2013
We came across some old Intel communication with its partners its predictions of the mobile computing market TAM (Total Amount of Market) and some growth estimates.

In 2010 Intel believed that in 2010 there would be enough space for some 155 million notebooks and 43 million netbooks. The projection was probably made based on data supplied by an outside market research company. At the time they made the research available Apple was yet to launch its iPad and start the tablet era.

In 2011 Intel estimated that the market would grow to 62 million netbooks and 189 million notebooks. In the year or 28nm and 22nm also known as year 2012, the netbook market was supposed to grow to 89 million netbooks and 226 million notebooks.

netbookmaket2013

Finally in year 2013, a year after the end of the world netbooks were supposed to grow to 126 million units and 267 million notebooks (almost 400 million combined or 100 percent growth in three years).

The reality tells us that netbooks market will dramatically shrink and have to share and coexist with tablets. Most industry veterans believe that tablets will eat their way into the netbook market, and since Intel has a chip that can be used in tablets, it will try to get as much market as possible but in tablets it has a fearsome competition.

According to iSupply, Apple alone is expected to sell 7.1 million tablets in 2010, more than 14.4 million iPads in 2011 and in 2012 Apple could sell 20.1 million, or three times more than in 2010. Samsung expects to sell 1.5 million Galaxy Tabs in 2010 and it expects to sell much more in the future.

Tegra 2 and Honeycomb based Motorola, LG and other tablets are around the corner and are expected to ship by March 2010 and these guys will also eat up some netbook market.

Overall in best case scenario for Intel in 2013 based on Intel’s numbers we would not be surprised if tablets steal as much as 2/3 of this 267 million unit market. Intel does have its own Atoms that end up in tablets and roughly in 2012 in phones, provided all goes well, but it won’t be easy to stay on top in this highly competitive market.

One thing is sure, tablets will outsell netbooks very soon, perhaps even in 2011.

Last modified on Thursday, 16 December 2010 11:56
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Comments  

 
+6 #1 yourma2000 2010-12-16 13:48
AMD have already secured the netbook department with Fusion for 2011 onwards, no doubt that will be affecting Atom sales in netbooks
 
 
+1 #2 DJDestiny 2010-12-16 17:38
Quoting yourma2000:
AMD have already secured the netbook department with Fusion for 2011 onwards, no doubt that will be affecting Atom sales in netbooks


Intel , their atom chips were 300% more expensive and 300% slower . ( Or rather PIII Katmai Era based chips )
 
 
+1 #3 romon 2010-12-16 20:13
Quoting DJDestiny:
Quoting yourma2000:
AMD have already secured the netbook department with Fusion for 2011 onwards, no doubt that will be affecting Atom sales in netbooks


Intel , their atom chips were 300% more expensive and 300% slower . ( Or rather PIII Katmai Era based chips )

Thats actually not true. Atom Oak Trial chip with Meego is only $25. AMD's higher performing zacate (relative to Atom) is priced at $500 netbook/ low end notebook. http://www.anandtech.com/show/3933/amds-zacate-apu-performance-update
AMD's Ontario is Intel Atom's competitor.
 
 
+2 #4 Bl0bb3r 2010-12-16 20:44
Quoting romon:
Quoting DJDestiny:
Intel , their atom chips were 300% more expensive and 300% slower

Thats actually not true. Atom Oak Trial chip with Meego is only $25.







He wanted to say Atom setups are more expensive... the chip itself is not but the chipset is and the license to make Atom boards is as well. Also there is a premium, some of that usually goes to the sales persons as an incentive to sell Intel.
 
 
+1 #5 Naterm 2010-12-17 11:11
Quoting yourma2000:
AMD have already secured the netbook department with Fusion for 2011 onwards, no doubt that will be affecting Atom sales in netbooks


What, did your crystal ball say that? You actually have no idea, none. Intel has a massive amount of inertia in this market, they'll no doubt improve their designs, and likely AMD won't gain significantly higher marketshare in this market than it owns in any other PC market (~10%).

Not to mention that the netbook market was a sort of stop gap between notebooks and effective tablet computers. It'll not last.

AMD would be much better served by pushing Bobcat towoards hyperscale servers where they can sell for higher margins.
 
 
+1 #6 Naterm 2010-12-17 11:15
Quoting DJDestiny:
Intel , their atom chips were 300% more expensive and 300% slower . ( Or rather PIII Katmai Era based chips )


Again with this? An Atom has double the clock speed, sometimes double the execution cores, double the cache, many times the bus speed, and generally access to much more memory and is draw much, much less power. In performance per watt metrics it's not even close between the old mobile PIII processors and the Atom even though it's using IOE instead of OOE.

It's much more accurate to compare the Atom to early Banias/Dothan designs than it is the PIII. But of course, you don't really know anything anyway.
 

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