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Venture capitalist says Apple is stuffed

Stone dead by 2020

Venture capitalist Fred Wilson, who hit the headlines when he dumped his Apple shares five years ago, said Jobs’ Mob is the Norwegian Blue of technology companies. Apparently while the tame Apple press is telling everyone that Apple prefers kipping on its back, Wilson thinks the only reason that Jobs Mob is on its perch in the first place is because it has been nailed there. Wilson dumped his shares in 2009 when he realized that Jobs was lying about getting better.

"As good as the company is," Wilson wrote, "I just can't own a stock when I don't believe the company is being straight with investors."

At this week's TechCrunch Disrupt conference in New York, former TechCrunch CEO Michael Arrington asked Wilson to predict which Internet companies would be the most valuable in 2020. He said that Google, Facebook and one that we've never heard of will be the most valuable. Apple will go because they're just too rooted to the hardware. And I think that hardware is increasingly becoming more commodity.

Jobs’ Mob does not have anything in the cloud to speak of, and the stuff they have in the cloud is largely not good. And I just don't think they think about data and the cloud in the way you need to think about things. Wilson made his name and fortune guessing right about Twitter, Tumblr, Foursquare, Zynga, Kickstarter, and 10gen. He also made news three years ago when he advised app developers to write first for Google's (GOOG) Android, and maybe later for Apple's iOS.

He thinks that the mobile OS market will play out very similarly to Windows and Macintosh, with Android in the role of Windows. And so if you want to be in front of the largest number of users, you need to be on Android.

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