In 2010 Intel believed that in 2010 there would be enough space for some 155 million notebooks and 43 million netbooks. The projection was probably made based on data supplied by an outside market research company. At the time they made the research available Apple was yet to launch its iPad and start the tablet era.
In 2011 Intel estimated that the market would grow to 62 million netbooks and 189 million notebooks. In the year or 28nm and 22nm also known as year 2012, the netbook market was supposed to grow to 89 million netbooks and 226 million notebooks.
Finally in year 2013, a year after the end of the world netbooks were supposed to grow to 126 million units and 267 million notebooks (almost 400 million combined or 100 percent growth in three years).
The reality tells us that netbooks market will dramatically shrink and have to share and coexist with tablets. Most industry veterans believe that tablets will eat their way into the netbook market, and since Intel has a chip that can be used in tablets, it will try to get as much market as possible but in tablets it has a fearsome competition.
According to iSupply, Apple alone is expected to sell 7.1 million tablets in 2010, more than 14.4 million iPads in 2011 and in 2012 Apple could sell 20.1 million, or three times more than in 2010. Samsung expects to sell 1.5 million Galaxy Tabs in 2010 and it expects to sell much more in the future.
Tegra 2 and Honeycomb based Motorola, LG and other tablets are around the corner and are expected to ship by March 2010 and these guys will also eat up some netbook market.
Overall in best case scenario for Intel in 2013 based on Intel’s numbers we would not be surprised if tablets steal as much as 2/3 of this 267 million unit market. Intel does have its own Atoms that end up in tablets and roughly in 2012 in phones, provided all goes well, but it won’t be easy to stay on top in this highly competitive market.
One thing is sure, tablets will outsell netbooks very soon, perhaps even in 2011.