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Wednesday, 17 November 2010 12:57

Facebook will be dead in five years

Written by Nick Farell

That long?
A web expert has warned that the social notworking site, Facebook, will be mercifully dead and buried within five years. While many of us are concerned that it will take that long, digital consumer expert Jeffrey Cole told a digital marketing forum that in the end Facebook will be no more successful than MySpace and Bebo at hanging onto the fickle teenage audience.

Dr Cole predicted the decline of MySpace four years ago, said it would take longer for Facebook's dominance to be challenged because of its global scale. He said that the site will not be replaced by one big social networking community but it's going to fragment. He also predicted few newspapers in the US would be around in five years' time.

However he said one or two mastheads in each country would survive and become global news brands because, even among teens who did not read the printed product, there had been a flight to quality, reliable online news. Sadly he believes that the iPad will be the dominant tablet device because of the strength of the Apple brand.

He said that newspapers and magazines were never going to prosper on the PC because they're lean-back (media) but the iPad is the most exciting development in the last 100 years for newspapers. Sheesh tablets have been around for years.

Nick Farell

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+35 #1 Wolfdale 2010-11-17 13:07
well i agree with "expert" about facebook..
just like many startups, its a hype..
facebook did a REALLY good job at exploiting it, and thats why they have become succesor over smaller ones...
but unless they actually contribute something, the hype will fade.
and in case of facebook, they just got so big that it takes longer for them to die out 8)

on his other comment.. the tablet pcs.. yeh theres a future in that for sure..
but its not gonna be Apple rofl..
jobs wants too much control over not just the devices, but also the contents of the web..

and the one strong thing that allways survives, even in IT, is the freedom of the internet... and thats not Jobs & co.
+23 #2 kartikkg 2010-11-17 13:28
so essentially he is saying that people will stop wasting time posting their 'private info' on web ? well great for the world
+7 #3 AndreiD 2010-11-17 15:03
Most of these so called "experts" predicted that in 2008 the world economy will be fine and dandy.
Also, you didn't need to be Nostradamus to predict that myspace was going to die out.
If the guys behind facebook keep offering something new every couple of months, they'll survive for years to come. There are a multitude of factors involved when predicting how a service will evolve and a lot of them are quite complex or unknown (like how nobody can predict what developers will do next).
Just the fact that someone will go through and try to predict how a service will evolve when there are so many unknowns demonstrates that the person in question is no better than a magic 8 ball.
+5 #4 GrumpyOldMan 2010-11-17 16:20
I can't wait 5 years.

Execution? Death through natural illness(virus)?

All that info out there. People sometimes forget our founding fathers went to the mat trying to protect liberties. Willingly sacrificing privacy would make little sense to those who fought. It's just plain stupid.

As they compile info on you, they will get premium bucks for it. Why don't you get paid for your info???

As to evolution, there is always the cloud. Alas, I don't think this will save them either.

It's a fad that will strip you of your identity and in the end, they will make lots of green off of you.
+3 #5 johndgr 2010-11-17 16:22
He said that the site will not be replaced

He is wrong here. The only way facebook is going to die is if something better replaces it. And that is going to take much more than 5 years, maybe more than 10 years. Facebook is more than just global and the question "do you have facebook?" sounds very familiar with the question "do you have e-mail?" a few years ago.
As for ipad. There is going to be always an ipad out there, but there are going to be much more androids and stuff. In the end Apple is going to be the minority in pads and phones. Nothing more.
+5 #6 Reavenk 2010-11-17 16:41
I have to agree with AndreiD. I'm no fanboy of Facebook, but I'm a little skeptical about its predicted downfall, although 5 years is a lot for anything to happen. It's got the fabled "critical mass" of users, they've given power to individual developers and companies to create more content and apps for it, and they've proven to be dynamic enough to handle new trends. The problem with MySpace was that that it wasn't personal enough, they didn't do enough to avoid stagnation, and they didn't crowdsource to the level Facebook is doing.
+3 #7 Wolfdale 2010-11-17 16:42
Quoting johndgr:
Facebook is more than just global and the question "do you have facebook?"

rofl that just reminded me of the southpark facebook episode.. hahaha

"Stan!! why havent you poked your grandma yet !?"
profile... : ignore/
+4 #8 ghelyar 2010-11-17 17:06
in the end Facebook will be no more successful than MySpace and Bebo at hanging onto the fickle teenage audience.

After 5 years, it wouldn't be the same teenage audience.

Survival relies on adaptation. If Facebook can adapt, it will survive. Who would have thought 15 years ago that a simple white web page with a small text box would turn into one of the biggest organisations on the planet, rather than going the way of altavista, lycos and many other relics.
+1 #9 thomasg 2010-11-17 17:26
Facebook will never die, where else would people play Farmville? :D
0 #10 Wolfdale 2010-11-17 20:07
Quoting thomasg:
Facebook will never die, where else would people play Farmville? :D

as predicted and discussed, facebook wont just.. cease to excist.. instead it will shatter in fragment companies..
i think its a very realistic estimate that Zynga (devs of frontiervill/farmville/maffiawars etc) would become one of those fragments..
you seriously dont wanna know how much money those guys earn from their facebook games, they wont just go down if facebook would ever split up.. these guys have the resources to stay alive as a self sustaining outfit

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