sometimes outspoken and controversial Wedbush analyst, Michael Pachter, has apparently stepped into another firestorm since he claimed that there was no chance for Battlefield 3 to beat the next Call of Duty in sales.
He apparently told Industry Gamers that, “EA is trying to gain share incrementally, and I’m sure that if it is a great game, Battlefield 3 will sell 25% - 35% more than the last version. It would have to sell more than 300% than the last version to catch Call of Duty.”
Pachter does admit that it is possible that the both games will see higher sales in 2011, but he apparently isn’t sure that it will translate into EA actually taking any share from Activision.
While we agree that it will be difficult and nearly impossible for Battlefield 3 to outsell the next Call of Duty, we think based on what we have seen so far that the game will indeed make a significant impact; and we predict that it will gain market share. We believe that the advantage of a new next generation engine will be a clear advantage that Battlefield needs to attract players. Much of what we have seen in Battlefield 3 is revolutionary, not just evolutionary.
The major key to the success of Battlefield 3 does, however, depend heavily on two factors, we think: it has to be very polished and bug free when it is released and it must ship on time before the end of this year. The release date will be important, and we suspect that this variable could greatly affect the sales numbers of the title.
Read Pachter’s take on Battlefield 3 here