We got word that Kepler, Nvidia's successor to Fermi architecture and its first 28nm part won’t launch until Q1 2012.
Our sources from the Far East are telling us that it’s the maturity of the 28nm process is to blame and that the chip could theoretically make it to very late Q4 2011 launch, but sources close to company are telling them that it would not make much sense to launch it that late in the quarter.
ATI is still on schedule to launch its 28nm chip in 2011, other sources are telling us, and ATI’s chip will be affected by the same issues, mainly the poor yields of the 28nm process. Even if ATI launches in 2011, very late Q3 or first half of Q4 2011 were the dates that we’ve heard, the chip wont really be massively available until some point in 2012.
Transitioning to a new process in the graphics word is always painful, and it took TSMC a lot to go from 65nm to 40nm and now, they are again faced with a difficult transition to 28nm and bad yields for quarters to come.