Analyst outfit IHS iSuppli thinks that ultrabook sales are going to be pretty rubbish this year.
IHS slashed its estimates for shipments of the thin-and-light notebooks to 10.3 million. It had thought that 22 million would be sold this year.
More than half of those shipments should come in the fourth quarter, the tech research firm said, likely boosted by the introduction of Microsoft's new Windows operating system. The outfit thinks it is going to get worse next year with shipments totaling 44 million, instead of its prior view of 61 million.
It does not think that the format is dead in the water. It will just be a slow burner with sales growing over the next few years, totaling about 95 million units by 2016.
This will be gutting for Chipzilla which has spent a fortune marketing ultrabooks. Part of the problem is that pricing hasn't yet declined enough to drive widespread adoption.
Ultrabooks are expected to sell at mainstream prices - around $600, but it is hard to find a good one for that price. IHS analyst Craig Stice said no one can remember a tag line for a new PC product, including for any single ultrabook.
The PC industry has failed to create the kind of buzz and excitement among consumers that is required to propel ultrabooks into the mainstream.