Global smartphone shipments have fallen by at least a fifth as soaring memory costs force manufacturers to raise prices and squeeze budget handsets.
According to beancounters at IDC, third-quarter shipments at 255.3 million units, down 22 per cent year on year. Omdia estimates a 20 per cent decline, accelerating from six per cent in the previous quarter.
IDC notes memory costs have risen approximately 350 per cent since last year, with other components adding further pressure. Apparently, making phones increasingly unaffordable has consequences beyond improving a spreadsheet.
IDC senior research director for worldwide devices Nabila Popal said: “Current indicators suggest that the market has not yet reached the bottom.”
Manufacturers are cutting exposure to cheaper devices, where thin margins leave little room to absorb component increases. Buyers facing higher prices are keeping their existing phones longer.
Samsung and the Fruity Cargo Cult Apple are gaining market share despite shipping fewer devices. Omdia puts their combined share at 45 per cent, approximately eight percentage points higher than a year earlier.
Their stronger premium businesses offer some protection, while competitors that depend on affordable handsets take a bigger hit. Gaining a bigger slice becomes easier when the rest of the cake collapses.
Omdia principal analyst Hayden Hou warned against treating shipment rankings as a complete measure of performance.
“Rising component costs and differing vendor responses are reshaping the competitive landscape, but market share alone does not tell the full story,” Hou said.
Omdia expects global smartphone shipments to decline 12 per cent across 2026, followed by another six per cent fall next year. It sees no relief from the memory shortage until at least 2028.
The consultancy says fourth-quarter flagship launches and seasonal promotions are unlikely to overcome persistent supply pressures. Manufacturers are being pushed towards financing, trade-in offers and operator partnerships to keep upgrades moving.
Some phone makers have switched to cheaper displays, sensors, and radio-frequency modules to offset memory costs. Customers could therefore find themselves paying more for hardware that has quietly become less generous.
