A smartphone’s bill of materials is expected to jump 25 per cent in 2026 thanks to the DRAM crisis, with some vendors even considering a return to 4GB RAM on entry phones. The squeeze is not just on memory either, with NAND flash getting pricier at the same time.
Number crunchers at Trendforce say mobile LPDDR RAM prices have climbed by more than 70 per cent, while storage costs are now 100 per cent higher. That is the sort of maths that turns “affordable” into “maybe next year”.
TrendForce says memory used to make up about 10 to 15 per cent of a handset’s manufacturing cost, but it has now risen to 20 per cent. When a fifth of your build cost is the bits everyone assumes are commodities, the spreadsheet starts to bite.
Even the Fruity Cargo Cult Apple has reportedly been reduced to sending executives on long hotel stays overseas to secure DRAM deals with Samsung and SK hynix, which is not the vibe of a company that tells the tame Apple press it invented the future.
Research firm Omdia, via tipster Ice Universe, reckons phone makers are being hit with DRAM and NAND flash price premiums of 70 per cent and 100 per cent, respectively. Those premiums land right as several companies gear up to introduce 2nm chipsets later this year, which will not be cheap silicon.
On top of that, high-end parts are getting sharper elbows. The Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro is expected to cost more than $300 this year, with the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 pegged at $280 per unit.
That leaves handset makers choosing between ugly compromises and price rises that risk softer sales. A return to 4GB on entry devices would be the most visible surrender, but it will not be the only one.
Not everyone is eating the same pain, at least publicly. Nvidia says it stayed insulated by prepaying for inventory to ride the AI boom, a move that looks a lot like locking the doors after grabbing the last crates.
The shortage is expected to drag on until Q4 2027.
