Counterpoint thinks DRAM and NAND will squeeze 2026 shipments, with Google oddly best placed to handle the crisis despite a having a wobbly Tensor G5.
The memory shortage is turning smartphone silicon into a game of who gets chips and who gets told to jog on, but the number crunchers at Counterpoint Research have crunched the numbers, divided by their shoe size, and worked out that Google should face the least resistance in 2026 chipset shipments.
Samsung maintains second place as DRAM and NAND flash become pricier and harder to source.
This is surprising given the pig’s ear that Google made with the Tensor G5 which was meant to look sharp as Google’s first SoC built on TSMC’s more advanced process, but it still lagged rivals on raw speed and efficiency. Even so, Counterpoint has Google down for the biggest year-on-year shipment growth in 2026 while most others slide backwards.
Counterpoint Research analyst Soumen Mandal says DRAM and NAND are now core cost drivers, pushing the bill of materials to 20 per cent in flagship phones. The same forecast has smartphone shipments down 6.1 per cent year on year in 2026, while smartphone SoC shipments are projected to fall seven per cent versus 2025.
Chinese OEMs are expected to be hit hardest because they rely heavily on Qualcomm and MediaTek, and the squeeze comes at the wrong time. MediaTek is reportedly in a difficult position because more than 50 per cent of its quarterly revenue comes from chipset shipments, even though its volume keeps it at the top overall.
Counterpoint reckons in-house silicon and tighter supply chains shelter Google, Samsung and the Fruity Cargo Cult Apple from the worst of it, though Job’s Mob is still tipped to see shipments decline.
The updated growth estimates show Google at 18.9 per cent versus an earlier 13.3 per cent forecast, Samsung at 7.3 per cent versus 5.1 per cent, and Apple at minus 4.4 per cent in both.
Counterpoint Research analyst Soumen Mandal said, “In this context, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 6.1 per cent YoY in 2026, while smartphone SoC shipments are projected to fall seven per cent compared to 2025.”
Mandal points the finger at the low end falling apart, while Google gets a boost from AI bragging rights and a wider push outside the US and Japan.
“UNISOC faces the steepest decline due to its exposure to the shrinking low-end 4G market. In contrast, Google is expected to see the strongest growth, supported by AI differentiation and expanding traction beyond the US and Japan,” Mandal said.
Samsung’s vertical strategy gets a nudge from the launch of the 2nm Exynos 2600, while MediaTek and Qualcomm get a mixed bag as premium platforms offset weakness in volume segments.
Counterpoint has previously warned the smartphone bill of materials could jump 25 per cent, with makers even flirting with 4GB RAM configs just to keep margins from getting rinsed.
