Beancounters working for Gartner Group have added up some numbers and divided by their shoe size and reached the conclusion that global AI spending will hit $2.59 trillion in 2026, as vendors pour cash into infrastructure and servers.
In its report, Forecast: AI Spending, Worldwide, 2025-2030, 1Q26 the business and technology crystal-ball outfit said the figure marks a 47 per cent rise year on year, with infrastructure doing most of the wallet-draining.
Gartner distinguished VP analyst John-David Lovelock said: “Through the next several years, the need for capacity will make AI infrastructure, including AI-optimised IaaS, AI-optimised servers, AI network fabric, AI processing semiconductors and devices, the largest segment of the market, accounting for more than 45 per cent of spending, which will be driven by vendors.”
“Within this segment, spending on AI-optimised servers will triple more than the next five years to become the largest subsegment, as cloud service providers expand capacity in anticipation of the workloads created by GenAI models and agentic workflows,” he said.
Enterprises are expected to expand their use of GenAI models already stuffed into existing software applications. They are expected to use new AI agents across multiple workflows, once vendors convince them that more automation is the same as progress.
Model consumption will rise through multistep processes and wider integration into tool suites, as enterprises spot possible value in agentic automation.
Gartner has lifted the short-term outlook for AI models to 110 per cent growth in 2026, adding $6 billion in spending for the year. The outfit forecasts AI services spending will rise from $436.35 billion in 2025 to $585.53 billion in 2026, then $759.42 billion in 2027.
AI cybersecurity spending is expected to climb from $25.92 billion in 2025 to $51.35 billion in 2026 and $86 billion in 2027. AI software spending is predicted to grow from $282.90 billion in 2025 to $453.21 billion in 2026, then $638.43 billion in 2027.
AI models will jump from $15.49 billion in 2025 to $32.60 billion in 2026 and $59.16 billion in 2027. AI platforms for data science and machine learning are forecast to hit $29.93 billion in 2026, up from $21.29 billion in 2025.
AI application development platforms are expected to rise from $6.59 billion in 2025 to $8.42 billion in 2026 and $10.92 billion in 2027. AI data, currently the runt of the litter, is forecast to grow from $826 million in 2025 to $3.13 billion in 2026.
AI infrastructure remains the monster category, rising from $975.58 billion in 2025 to $1.43 trillion in 2026 and $1.89 trillion in 2027. Total AI spending is expected to rise from $1.76 trillion in 2025 to $2.59 trillion in 2026, then $3.49 trillion in 2027.
“Up to this point, AI spending has primarily been driven by technology companies and hyperscalers,” Lovelock said.
“Enterprises have yet to really flex their spending potential. That is coming, and 2026 will be the inflexion year. Currently, organisations show limited appetite for using AI to drive disruptive enterprise change. Instead, they favour tactical AI initiatives with incremental improvements in efficiency and productivity.”
“For this reason, CIOs face challenges in proving the value of AI investments and demonstrating tangible business outcomes. Aligning AI initiatives with strategic business objectives is essential to success. This incremental approach persists despite AI hype and valuations that reflect aspirations to transform the broader economy,” he added.
