China’s CXMT has hit a production ceiling just as AI demand keeps shoving memory prices through the roof.
According to Cryptopolitan, ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, was reported by Omdia to have reached about 240,000 wafers per month at the end of last year. CXMT has doubled wafer output from 2024 levels, but the ramp has slowed sharply. Industry insiders quoted by ChosunBiz expect production to stay flat through the year.
Washington’s restrictions on advanced chipmaking gear are biting, while CXMT’s yields still trail the memory giants. Counterpoint Research reckons its first-generation 10nm DRAM process yields 42 per cent lower than Samsung and SK Hynix, leaving it close to 50 per cent.
On 24 August, trader @MelvinInvests wrote that China had “just proved it can’t outbuild the memory shortage.” The capacity numbers back that up, with CXMT’s rated production about 50 per cent of SK Hynix’s and around 30 per cent of Samsung’s, according to ChosunBiz.
DRAM contract prices are still marching north. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise another 13 per cent to 18 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2026, as AI servers keep hoovering supply.
JP Morgan Global Research reckons DRAM prices could rise by more than 400 per cent between the start of 2024 and the end of 2026. It pins much of that on hyperscalers locking up supply through long-term agreements.
Omdia expects memory chips to make up more than 50 per cent of total semiconductor revenue in 2026, which means pricier smartphones, PCs and other consumer kit.
Reuters reported that it booked $7.5 billion in first-quarter revenue, completed an $8.6 billion Shanghai listing and signed a five-year memory deal worth more than $7 billion with ByteDance.
Counterpoint estimates CXMT now accounts for around nine per cent of global DRAM bit shipments. Goldman Sachs reportedly expects it to meet only 41 per cent of China’s DRAM demand in 2026, rising to just 50 per cent by 2028.
SK Hynix has approved 54 trillion won, about $38 billion and €32.7 billion, for two new fabs, but its Y2 DRAM plant will not reach the cleanroom stage until mid-2029. Samsung’s memory unit just posted record quarterly revenue, while CXMT plans to reach 420,000 wafers a month by 2027 if its Shanghai and Beijing plants arrive on cue.
