Number crunchers at IDC have added up some figures and divided by their shoe size, and predicted doom for cheap PCs and significant grief for the rest of the industry.
IDC has slashed its outlook for the global PC market, warning that memory shortages and supply chain grief will drag shipments down through 2026 and potentially into 2027.
The research outfit now expects global PC shipments to fall 11.3 per cent this year, a nastier drop than the 2.4 per cent it was punting before. Tablets are in the same boat, with global shipments forecast to decline 7.6 per cent during the period,
According to the latest update to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, the shift stems from a cocktail of hardware constraints and rising component prices that are disrupting manufacturers’ ability to build kits at scale. Memory shortages are the headline villain, while broader supply constraints across the tech industry pile on additional pressure.
IDC thinks this mess won’t wrap up any time soon. Its analysis says the supply challenges tied to memory and other key components could linger into 2027, making it tough for manufacturers to plan output or pricing with anything approaching confidence.
IDC group vice president Devices and Consumer Ryan Reith said: “The overall tech industry, as well as many others, continues to face uncontrollable headwinds that, when compounded, result in massive disruption.”
The lists of industry and geopolitical events that continue to grow are making decision-making and even survival in some sectors nearly impossible. What has turned all of this from a million-dollar question into a trillion-dollar question is the complete uncertainty around when these pressures will subside.”
IDC adds that the outlook was produced before the conflict in the Middle East escalated to its current level, which could put more strain on tech and hardware supply chains. That means the numbers might still have some nasty surprises waiting in the wings.
Even as shipments slide, IDC expects revenue to rise because buyers will pay more per box. Higher average selling prices are expected to lift the total PC market value 1.6 per cent to $274 billion in 2026, while tablets could climb 3.9 per cent to $66.8 billion.
IDC research manager Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers Jitesh Ubrani said: “The era of bargain-priced PCs and tablets is behind us for now, as rising ASPs and component costs shift the market’s balance of power.”
“Memory shortages will persist well into 2027. While we anticipate some easing of prices beginning in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025. Instead, we expect a new normal defined by structurally higher ASPs and a corresponding softening in long-term demand.”
IDC expects manufacturers to tweak strategy as the pain drags on, with more effort going into shoring up supply chains and diversifying component sourcing so they are not held hostage by a couple of chokepoints. Some vendors may even shove lower-spec parts into certain models to keep prices from going totally daft, which will decide how many buyers bother upgrading.
