The US smartphone market shrank three per cent in the first quarter as carriers tightened subsidies and mid-range Androids took a kicking.
Omdia said US smartphone shipments fell three per cent year on year to 33.4mn units in 1Q26. The comparison was against a pumped-up 1Q25, when vendors and carriers rushed inventory ahead of possible US tariff action.
Beyond that accounting wrinkle, shipments were squeezed by a more cautious carrier upgrade market, higher memory and storage costs and delayed device launches.
Omdia senior analyst Eric Chen said: “The US smartphone market did not experience a broad demand shock in Q1 2026. The decline was modest, but the quarter was shaped by several overlapping factors, including an elevated Q1 2025 comparison, more selective carrier subsidies, rising component costs and later device launches. The result was a market where shipment performance depended heavily on channel execution and timing.”
The Fruity Cargo Cult Apple kept its top spot in 1Q26, despite a three per cent year-on-year fall. Job’s Mob benefited from Samsung’s delayed Galaxy S26 launch, which limited direct premium Android competition. The iPhone 17 series accounted for 70 per cent of Job’s Mob’s shipments. Aggressive iPhone 15 prepaid promotions kept the lower tiers ticking along.
Samsung came second, with shipments down five per cent year on year because of the delayed Galaxy S26 launch. Even so, the S26 series showed decent early traction, with pre-orders up nearly 25 per cent versus the S25 series. Samsung leaned hard on prepaid A-series demand during the quarter, led by the Galaxy A17.
Motorola was the only major vendor to grow in 1Q26, with shipments rising 18 per cent year on year. The refreshed Moto G line did the best, accounting for more than 70 per cent of Motorola’s quarterly shipments. Carrier and prepaid channels seemed to pull forward inventory before Motorola’s April price increases, which is a polite way of saying everyone saw the bill coming.
Google shipments fell seven per cent year on year in 1Q26. The Pixel 10 series failed to match the Pixel 9 lineup’s momentum from a year earlier. The earlier Pixel 10a launch softened the fall, while carrier promotions remained central to Google’s plan to push Pixel beyond its core premium crowd.
Chen said: “The US smartphone market is becoming increasingly polarised, with premium and entry-tier devices proving far more resilient. In 1Q26, the $800+ premium segment declined only one per cent year over year, supported by Apple and carrier financing. The sub-$300 segment grew by eight per cent, helped by prepaid demand, plan-linked promotions, and channel pull-forward ahead of price increases on select value models. Meanwhile, pressure was concentrated in the middle of the market, with the $300–599 segment declining 19 per cent and the $600–799 segment falling six per cent. This suggests that rising device costs and more selective carrier subsidies put the most pressure on Android mid-range and mid-to-high-end devices, while premium models and budget devices remained better supported by US channel structures.”
That leaves the middle of the market looking like the awkward bit of the sandwich. Premium buyers still have financing cushions, while budget buyers get prepaid promotions and channel stuffing.
The $300 to $599 segment fell 19 per cent, while the $600 to $799 segment dropped six per cent. The premium $800-plus segment slipped just one per cent, and sub-$300 devices grew eight per cent.
Chen said: “The US smartphone market is entering a phase where carriers are playing a larger role in moderating how rising device costs reach consumers. While OEM manufacturers’ suggested retail prices (MSRPs) began rising in 1Q 26, most consumers have yet to fully feel the impact because carriers continue to manage affordability through financing, promotions, and plan-led offers. However, how long carriers can absorb or delay these increases remains a key question for upgrade demand through the rest of 2026.”
Omdia expects these pressures to continue through 2026, forecasting US smartphone shipments to fall four per cent year on year for the full year.
AI-native devices are being watched as a longer-term threat to the usual upgrade cycle. They are unlikely to replace smartphones immediately, but developments from OpenAI and reported interest from Amazon could shift how buyers see smartphone value.
