Memory prices are going mad, and Samsung is cashing in
Samsung Electronics is forecasting record quarterly earnings, riding the data centre arms race for AI.
On 8 January 2026, the memory giant said fourth-quarter operating profit likely trebled to about Won20tn (€11.8bn) from a year earlier, beating estimates of Won17tn (€10.0bn).
Revenue guidance was just as punchy, with a 23 per cent jump to Won93tn (€55.0bn) as the industry fights over scarce high-bandwidth memory for AI hardware.
Samsung’s share price rose 125 per cent last year to Won119,900 (€70.9), its biggest annual percentage gain in 26 years, dragging South Korea’s market along for the ride.
Macquarie Capital, head of Korea Research Daniel Kim said: “We are seeing the beginning of the unprecedented semiconductor supercycle. The best is yet to come, with the DRAM shortage making Samsung’s HBM performance a secondary issue.”
Kim reckons the shortage will not ease by 2027, which makes old-fashioned DRAM for cars and PCs look like the real money, not the flashy HBM stuff.
It is quite the reversal after Samsung, chief executive Jun Young-hyun had to apologise a year ago for lagging in HBM, which had people muttering about its edge.
Samsung, chair Lee Jae-yong has been doing the rounds with high-profile meetings as the AI build-out accelerates, including a sit-down with Nvidia, chief executive Jensen Huang in October.
Analysts reckon Samsung is lining up to be a key Nvidia supplier, with its most advanced HBM4 likely headed for the US outfit’s Vera Rubin platform, as supply remains tight.
Samsung, chief executive Jun Young-hyun said, “Samsung is back. Its contract chipmaking unit is ‘primed for a Great Leap Forward’ after recent supply deals with big customers such as Tesla.”
Samsung’s optimism landed just after Micron Technology flagged a second-quarter adjusted profit forecast at nearly double analyst estimates, because everyone loves a boom when they are not paying the bill.
TrendForce analyst Avril Wu said: “As conventional DRAM prices continue to surge, Samsung, whose production capacity is largely concentrated in this segment, stands to gain relatively more from the current price upcycle.”
Citigroup analyst Peter Lee expects Samsung to post a record operating profit of Won155tn (€91.6bn) this year, up from Won43.5tn (€25.7bn) in 2025, with DRAM and NAND prices forecast to be up 88 per cent and 74 per cent, respectively.
Those soaring chip prices are squeezing Samsung’s margins in phones and home appliances, which is the less glamorous side of being your own biggest customer.
