SK Hynix chief executive Kwak Noh-jung has warned that the memory industry is heading for its “worst-ever” supply shortage in 2027.
For those not in the know, SK Hynix is one of the three largest DRAM producers and now expects demand to outrun supply beyond 2030.
SK Hynix has forecast that current market demand will leave it well short of meeting customer demand.
“We forecast that next year will be the worst year in the industry’s history from the supply perspective,” Kwak told Reuters.
The outfit’s gloomy forecast lines up with warnings from Samsung and Micron, which have already told the market to expect more pain.
Samsung has said 2027 could be the worst year for shortages, with tight conditions dragging through 2028 and beyond.
Micron has called the current shortage only the “first innings”, which is the sort of sporting metaphor used when things are already looking expensive.
It said DRAM and NAND supply would stay tight, with the company able to meet only 40 to 50 per cent of total market demand in the coming years.
Demand from AI customers and multi-year supply deals are putting even more pressure on a market already wheezing like an ancient beige box.
The big three DRAM makers have prioritised posh memory segments such as HBM and LPDDR5X.
Commodity memory, including DDR5, DDR4 and entry-level LPDDR RAM, has been shoved into the cheap seats.
That has been lovely for the profits of SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung.
It has been less lovely for consumers, who are being clobbered by price rises across PCs, smartphones, consoles, and anything else that needs RAM.
The AI gold rush has made memory makers rich, while the punters building gaming rigs get to stare at price tags and mutter darkly.
SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are preparing multi-year, multi-billion-dollar expansion plans to add new fabs and facilities.
SK Hynix is laying out new capacity across South Korea while considering potential fabs in the US, Japan and Southeast Asia.
Those plans are still not nailed down, which is handy if you enjoy uncertainty with your semiconductor shortages.
Micron has recently started building a new facility for DRAM production.
SK Hynix marked its Nasdaq debut, while Kwak delivered a forecast about as cheerful as a dead DIMM slot.
The memory industry is entering a rough stretch as AI demand rewrites the semiconductor map and leaves ordinary kit makers scrapping for parts.
