If Nvidia ends up investing far less than $100 billion in OpenAI, it raises awkward questions for Oracle about the whole AI funding merry-go-round.
The first problem is whether the ChatGPT developer can honour its glorious five-year, $300 billion contract with Oracle. The second is whether Oracle should do it at all.
As of 30 November 2025, Oracle reported $523 billion in remaining performance obligations, contracted sales not yet recognised as revenue. That closely watched footnote was about nine times Oracle’s revenue for the previous four quarters and included $300 billion tied to OpenAI.
Oracle shares surged in early September 2025, at one point jumping 36 per cent in a single day after earnings showed its RPOs had more than tripled from the previous quarter.
OpenAI’s relationship with Nvidia has become a poster child for the circularity worries baked into AI mega-deals. A letter of intent unveiled on 22 September 2025 proposed that Nvidia invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI over many years.
Some of that cash would boomerang back to Nvidia as OpenAI buys chips. Some would help OpenAI cover expenses, such as its deal with Oracle for computing capacity.
Oracle has been facing scrutiny over its debt and the reliability of OpenAI as a counterparty, with calls for it to raise equity to maintain its investment-grade rating. It looks like Oracle has taken the hint.
On 1 February 2026, Oracle said it plans to issue up to $20 billion of common stock this year, as part of raising $45 billion to $50 billion through equity and debt to expand cloud infrastructure. That is dilution after shareholders have already watched the stock lose about half its value since the September peak.
Oracle is already building data centres funded with new debt, leaning hard on the OpenAI contract as justification. Oracle and Nvidia are major customers of each other, and Oracle has signalled it wants to diversify AI chip buys beyond Nvidia.
Now a big chunk of OpenAI’s expected funding is suddenly in doubt. That puts fresh pressure on how OpenAI will cover what it estimates at $1.4 trillion in commitments, including the substantial tab it has run up with Oracle.
Oracle spokeswoman Deborah Hellinger said, “The Nvidia-OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We remain highly confident in OpenAI’s ability to raise funds and meet its commitments.”
The Wall Street Journal reported on 30 January 2026 that Nvidia’s September deal had stalled after internal doubts surfaced. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang told reporters in Taipei the next day that the chip giant would “absolutely be involved” in OpenAI’s latest funding round.
Asked if the amount would be more than $100 billion, he said: “No, no, nothing like that,” Huang said.
OpenAI is targeting $100 billion in its latest fundraising, which could still include Nvidia. SoftBank Group is considering investing up to $30 billion more after increasing its stake to 11 per cent in December 2025 with a $22.5 billion cheque, and Amazon.com is also in talks.
OpenAI is aiming for an initial public offering in the fourth quarter of 2026, because nothing says “we’re fine” like planning an IPO while the bill for compute keeps climbing.
Maybe it all lands and OpenAI secures the obscene sums it needs, or another customer steps in if OpenAI cannot pay the full $300 billion. For now, it is guesswork, and Nvidia’s trimming of its ambition makes Oracle’s $300 billion look much less like a done deal.
