Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster expects Apple to ship about 10 million Apple Watches next year.

The estimate is somewhat cautious, as Munster noted that consumer application may be limited until developers come up with truly useful apps for the watch.

Munster expects the Apple Watch average selling price (ASP) will end up near the $500 mark. Although Apple said the watch would launch at $349, this is just the price for the entry level version. Some Edition series watches are expected to end up in four-digit territory.

Although the figure does not sound like much when it comes to Apple, the smartwatch market is still in its infancy. It is estimated that around 3 million smartwatches have been shipped so far and adoption remains very limited. Despite the caution, Munster’s figures sound a bit optimistic, but that does not make them unrealistic.

Munster has been the darling of the Apple Tame Press for years, but some of his predictions have been spectacularly wrong. He has been talking about Apple’s smart TV push for years, but it has yet to materialize. Munster expected the iPhone 5C to launch at $300 contract-free. He also got the iPhone 5 and iPhone 5S/5C launch day figures wrong, as Apple outperformed his estimates by a few million units. If Munster’s recent track record is anything to go by, there is a chance that the 10 million Apple Watch figure is a relatively conservative estimate.

In Munster’s defense, we are dealing with an entirely new product this time around, so we don’t exactly expect analysts to be spot on. As far as 2014 goes, smartwatch shipments will be very small, but it will take a few quarters before we learn how Apple’s and Google’s new toys are doing.