Published in PC Hardware

AMD 30 percent market gain won’t happen

by on03 October 2018

Now Wall Street realizes

AMD is the second best x86 maker out of two, and this is how things will remain. The recent rumors and prediction by fellow analysts and journalists that AMD can win up to a third of the market is,  pure and simple, science fiction.

It was hard to predict that Intel would be stuck with 14 nm for so many generations, and the fact that Intel cannot migrate successfully to 10nm is definitely hurting the bigger x86 player. Another fact is that Intel still dominates, especially in the notebook market, which is a big chunk of the business where AMD has an incredibly tiny part.

There is not a single flagship notebook powered by an AMD processor, especially in the thin and lite market and we don’t see this changing anytime soon. Qualcomm, for what it's worth, has a better chance there, but that’s another story altogether as Qualcomm can use its incredibly good battery life and great connectivity trump card.

AMD hopes that EPYC will gain market share, and it probably will. AMD will increase its market share in the server market and probably even in the desktop market too. 

AMD did gain a few percent in the desktop market with all the Ryzen desktop success as the market is slow to react to the process. AMD needs to increase the OEM share in order to grow its sales significantly and people buying CPUs for build-it-yourself at Newegg, Caseking, or the Amazons of the world won’t really change things.

Let's not forget that IBM is here with a very powerful Power 9 processor that does well in the AI market in synergy with Nvidia GPUs, another heavyweight competitor that wins a lot of highest profile, bank, governments, and the rest.

Even if AMD makes 30 percent of desktop, and - based on nineteen years of my experience -  I simply don’t see this happening. Now a few days after the bombastic news got broken, many financial analysts are changing their mind as they realize that these goals are quite unrealistic.

The 7nm AMD line up is expected in early 2019 and will put more pressure on Intel. 

Bear in mind that Intel’s 14nm Coffee Lake refresh generation did a good job competing with AMD and we don’t see this changing anytime soon. Intel has the 9th series planned for this year probably increasing the performance further, plus the rumored eight core high Core i7 CPU.



Last modified on 05 October 2018
Rate this item
(0 votes)

Read more about: