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Nvidia could be worth $10 trillion in ten years

by on17 July 2024


Analyst who predicted Tesla and Amazon’s early success claims

Nvidia’s market capitalization has rocketed from $1.1 trillion to a staggering $3.1 trillion in just 12 months. However, according to James Anderson, a tech investor known for predicting Amazon and Tesla's early success, this is merely the beginning.

Chatting to the FT,  Anderson said: "The potential scale of Nvidia, in the most optimistic scenario, surpasses anything I've seen before. It could lead to a market cap in the double-digit trillions. Not a prediction, mind you, but a tantalising possibility—if artificial intelligence continues to serve customers, and Nvidia maintains its lead."

The AI boom has minted around half a million new millionaires—those who invested in tech reshaping workplaces and media consumption. Nvidia, alongside tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Apple, now commands a colossal $14.5 trillion, constituting about 32 per cent of the S&P 500.

Anderson crunched the numbers. With Nvidia's data centre revenue growing at a blistering 60 per cent, he projected that if this trend persists over the next decade, the company's market cap could reach a jaw-dropping $49 trillion.

That's more than the combined value of every company in the S&P 500, which currently hovers around $45.84 trillion. Anderson pegs the likelihood of this outcome at 10-15 per cent.

Anderson has been right before. His go-big-or-go-home approach made him a staunch advocate for both Amazon and Tesla (in fact, his investments in Tesla were second only to CEO Elon Musk's). From 2005 to 2021, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust—managed by Baillie Gifford, where Anderson worked—achieved a staggering 2,240 per cent return. And yes, they invested in Nvidia back in 2016. Anderson's current stomping ground, Lingotto Investment Management, boasts a $650 million fund with Nvidia as its flagship holding.

When Anderson first backed the company, it wasn't obvious whether it would be a gaming, crypto, or AI powerhouse. But it had an edge: early success. Unlike Amazon and Tesla, which clawed their way to dominance, Nvidia started strong. Anderson still views it as an agile player.

"It's the enduring evolution of graphic processing units (GPUs) in AI—not just the initial excitement, but the journey through potential pauses—that matters most to us," Anderson said.

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