We found some quite disturbing news that the quad-core market for Intel CPUs actually isn't growing, and that in some cases it will shrink down in Q4 2008.

Intel divides its market to two segment, Business OEM and consumer market. In the consumer market things are not really moving, as in Q3 2008 Intel plans that seven percent of all CPUs will be Core 2 Quad 65nm, while six percent will be 45nm-based quad-cores. In Q4 2008 the ratio will change and Intel will increase the production of 45nm Quad cores to eight percent, while the 65nm quad core market will shrink to five percent, but again we will end up with a magical 13 percent of the whole CPU market for quad- cores. Q4 is traditionally the best quarter and Intel won’t grow at all in this very profitable segment.

In Q1 2009 Intel plans to grow by a whopping one percent, where 65nm quad core production will drop to one percent and 45nm quad-core market share will jump to 13 percent. The total quad-core market for Intel will grew to 14 percent which is far from impressive, and in Q2 2009 Intel hopes to stay at the same 14 percent ,but it wont be production 65nm quad cores, and the 45nm quad-core parts will get to 14 percent.

This is far from impressive and no wonder Intel changed its strategy and now is confident that dual-core CPUs will stay with us much longer than anyone has previously expected.

The business OEM will first grow, then drop in Q1 2009. In Q3 2008, Intel plans that three percent of its total CPU output will be based on Core 2 Quad 65nm processors, while four percent will be based on Core 2 Quad 45nm quad cores. In Q4 this market will actually grow to 10 percent where three percent will remain Core 2 Quad 65nm-based processors, while the Core 2 Quad 45nm market will grow to seven percent.

In Q1 2009, Intel plans to increase 45nm quad-core production to eight percent and it plans to stop the production and shipping of 65nm quad-core parts. We will end up with a total of eight percent of quad-cores in Q1 2009. The 45nm quad-core market in the business segment will grow to nine percent and this will be the total market for quad-cores, which is not that impressive.