What makes matters worse for the likes of Samsung and Apple is that Trendforce is assuming that they have got their act together and their supply chains are up and running.
That follows a 10 percent drop in output worldwide in the March quarter, when the outbreak spread and peaked in China before sweeping through Europe and the United States.
TrendForce cut its annual output forecast to 1.24 billion smartphones, down 11.3 percent from 2019, from 1.35 billion.
“The pandemic is now making its effects felt on the demand side of the smartphone market by tanking major economies worldwide”, TrendForce said.
TrendForce estimates iPhone production fell nearly nine percent to about 38 million units in the March quarter, and expects a further drop of two million units in the current one.
Apple’s market share will slip to 12.6 percent this quarter from 13.5 percent in the last, TrendForce said.
Samsung’s share of the market will ease three percentage points to 20.3 percent in the June quarter.
“Chinese brands are exerting continuous pressure on Samsung’s presence in the Southeast Asian and Indian markets by the day”, the firm added.
Samsung warned of significant declines in its mobile business in the second quarter.
China’s Huawei, which saw revenue growth slow sharply in the first quarter, is expected to make about 48 million phones in the June quarter to meet recovering domestic demand, up two million from the March quarter, TrendForce said.
Chinese firms Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo will each gain market share in the June quarter. TrendForce added that Vivo was the only smartphone brand among the top six to see volumes increase in the March quarter but warned things things were set to change in light of lockdowns in Southeast Asia and India.